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Coronavirus (Covid19) Thoughts 2020-03-12

Most astrology work I do is supported by charts and sometimes other graphics such as maps. I avoid editorializing and try to stay close to the interpretations, sometimes bending them a little to fit obvious situations and events concurrent with the analysis.

That said, no matter what happens with Covid19, we will look back on these early days as unique, and the changes following them as inevitable.

Here are possible scenarios that I see:

Short Term:

  • Covid19 fizzles out, doing little damage overall, and certainly not as much as annual influenza.

  • Covid19 becomes a source of death for the elderly, infants (under two years of age), and other immune compromised that is roughly equal to annual influenza producing a bad year but dying out.

  • Same as before, except new variations of Cov19 emerge each year, similar to influenza, and effectively doubling the death rate of older adults and immune compromized due to infections.

  • Covid19 becomes a true pandemic, similar to the "Spanish Flu" of 1918, possibly coming in "waves" (a new wave each year during "flu season") and kills millions of people globally before dying out after several waves produce lasting immunity.

Long Term:

  • Covid19 becomes a pandemic but stays with us indefinitely (decades).

  • Covid19 is a pandemic but dies out after several "waves." (years) However, crowded conditions in India and China, coupled with poor sanitation and hygiene, also coupled with fast and cheap travel and global distribution networks, creates a series of "waves" of pandemics, If this last option is true, then we may be facing Covid19 as being the first of many pandemics, and we may be facing pandemics becoming the "new normal."

This last option, waves of successive pandemics over decades, will not be "the end of the world as we know it." But, "the world as we know it" will undergo such drastic changes that day to day affairs will seem almost unrecognizable when comparing the first twenty years of the 21st Century to the ones that succeed 2020.

No one seems to be discussing this last possibility.

The Agent is Not the Real Issue

When discussing diseases with the public, commentators almost always concentrate on the agent (in this case Covid19). But epidemiologists know that the agent is almost incidental. Epidemics and Pandemics are functions of sanitation, hygiene, and travel.

Crowded conditions, whether people crowded into tight quarters in the Pacific Rim or "factory farming" of "livestock," are breeding grounds for virulent micro-organisms, the "agents" of disease.

Bad sanitation, poor hygiene, global travel, and global supply chains serve to transmit the agent.

In a sense, we may be facing a different aspect of the consequences of some of our behavior ("factory farming" and "wet markets").

And, nobody seems willing to discuss that.

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